by정영효 기자
2008.01.08 14:34:05
"내수진작이 열쇠..매파적인 韓銀이 최대 걸림돌"
"韓銀 최근 결정 임시변통적…이해하기 어렵다"
[이데일리 정영효기자] 무디스가 이명박 대통령 당선자가 제시한 `747 경제공약`의 실현가능성에 의문을 제기했다.
8일 국제신용평가회사인 무디스의 자회사로 독립 리서치 회사인 무디스이코노미닷컴(MEDC)은 "한국의 `747`경제 이륙할 것인가(Will Korea's `747`Economy get airborne)"라는 보고서를 통해 2017년까지 경제성장률 7%, 일인당 국민소득 4만달러, 세계 7대 경제대국 진입을 달성하겠다는 `747 공약`이 이미 동요를 일으키고 있다고 분석했다.
고유가와 미국 경제 둔화의 영향으로 올해 경제성장률 목표치를 6%로 낮추면서 취임 초기 의욕적으로 개혁에 착수했다가 별다른 성과를 내지 못하곤 했던 전임 대통령의 전례를 떠올리게 하고 있다는 것이다.
무디스는 감세와 주택 부문의 규제 완화, 소비 진작, 서비스 부문의 경쟁 촉진을 통해 `747 공약`을 달성하겠다는 이명박 정부의 계획을 상세히 소개했다.
그러나 무디스는 공약 이행의 열쇠인 가계 지출 증가가 여의치 않다고 지적했다.
무디스가 꼽은 이명박 정부 최대의 도전은 매우 `매파적(hawkish)`인 한국은행. 지난 수 년간 한국의 소비 지출이 부진했던 데는 한국은행의 통화긴축 정책이 최소한 부분적으로나마 작용했다는 설명이다.
무디스는 한국은행을 `국내경제에 관한 한 아시아에서 가장 이해하기 어려운 중앙은행 가운데 하나(the central bank-which remains one of Asia's most difficult to understand-regarding the domestic economy)`라고 지칭하고, 따라서 이명박 정부가 한국은행과 새로운 협약을 논의할 필요가 있다고 진단했다.
무디스는 특히 "한국은행의 최근 결정이 설명하기 어렵고, 임시변통적(ad hoc)이며, 변덕스러웠다(capricious)"며 "보다 투명하고 신뢰할 수 있는 중앙은행이 `747공약`을 이륙시킬 수 있을 것"이라고 지적했다.
다음은 무디스 이코노미닷컴 보고서의 요약문이다.
Will Korea's "747" Economy Get Airborne?
by Daniel Melser and Sherman Chan
Key Points
Lee Myung-Bak won last month's South Korean presidential election by a comfortable margin, showing the popularity of his pro-growth vision.
Yet post-election realities have already prompted Lee to tone down his ambitious slogan of a "747" economy.
The president-elect hopes to further deregulation, unlike his predecessors who favoured redistribution and ad hoc intervention in the economy.
A freer domestic- and services-oriented economy, along with proposed tax cuts, should boost consumer spending.
Lee's push for more domestic consumption may clash with the Bank of Korea's hawkish policy.
The BoK is expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week, but may be under pressure to cut soon thanks to politics and a gloomy global outlook.
As widely expected, Lee Myung-Bak of the Grand National Party scored a landslide victory in South Korea's presidential election last month.
During the election campaign, the pro-business candidate outlined his "747" vision plan, which promises annual economic growth of 7%, annual income of US$40,000 per capita by 2017 and to make South Korea the seventh largest economy in the world. His success shows South Koreans are concerned about their economic future.
Having pledged to boost the rate of GDP growth to 7%, the president-elect's policy plans include tax cuts; deregulating a housing sector saddled with red tape by the previous administration; promoting consumer spending; and fostering competition in the services sector. These moves should help offset an expected moderation in external demand.
But the president-elect's lofty goals have hit turbulence already. Even before he takes office in February, higher oil prices and a growing pessimism regarding the U.S. outlook have forced Lee to lower his growth target to 6% for 2008. This raises questions about his ability to follow through on his pledges, and is reminiscent of the previous president's reforming zeal when he entered office, which ultimately amounted to very little.
One of Lee's most formidable challenges will be the very hawkish Korean central bank. The new government aims to stimulate overall growth by boosting the household sector. But consumer spending has remained muted in recent years, at least partly due to the Bank of Korea's tight monetary policy.
The government will need to negotiate a new compact with the central bank-which remains one of Asia's most difficult to understand-regarding the domestic economy. The new administration must demand greater transparency and accountability from the central bank regarding its decision-making.
The Bank of Korea's recent decisions have tended to be poorly explained and have appeared ad hoc and capricious. A more transparent and accountable central bank would help provide the fuel for Lee's 747 economy to really take off.
This commentary is produced by Moody's Economy.com, Inc. (MEDC), a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (MCO) engaged in economic research and analysis. MEDC's commentary is independent and does not reflect the opinions of Moody's Investors Service, Inc., the credit ratings agency which is also a subsidiary of MCO. If sourcing this article please quote Moody's Economy.com.