by김현동 기자
2001.03.20 07:10:17
[edaily] 다음은 무디스의 한국에 대한 신용등급조정 전문입니다.
MOODY"S: STABLE OUTLOOK FOR KOREA"S Baa2 RATING SUPPORTED BY GREATER RESILIENCE TO SHOCKS AND BY A PRUDENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY
New York, March 19, 2001 -- "The stable outlook for Korea"s Baa2 foreign currency country ceiling rating is supported by the significant reduction in Korea "s vulnerability to external shocks and a policy commitment to maintain a strong external liquidity position," says Moody"s Investors Service in a yearly report on the country.
"The outlook is stable, despite underlying weakness in the financial system and the embryonic state of corporate sector restructuring," says analyst Thomas J. Byrne, author of the report, "Global Credit Research: Korea."
The document is a yearly update to the markets and is not a formal action to alter the credit rating of the issuer.
Favorable external economic conditions have helped Korea, boosting export growth that has sustained the current account surplus. The Korean won has avoided appreciating against the Japanese yen, the most important currency in determining the competitiveness of Korea "s exports. It has also remained competitive in real terms.
"The partial restructuring and underlying fragility of the financial system and corporate sector remain the largest credit risk," says Byrne. He adds: "Stability has been restored to the banking system, but the financial system at large, including the sizable non-bank financial institution sector, remains fragile. Such structural weaknesses were masked by the real economy"s apparently robust recovery from the crisis of the past two years."
But the recent slowdown in economic growth threatens to aggravate problems of insolvency, to perpetuate moral hazard and to drive up the fiscal cost of recovery from the crisis. Says Byrne: "Only a significant reduction in these risks will signal Korea"s recovery from the Asian financial crisis."
Moody"s ratings also incorporate the country"s relationship with the North Korea, which were redefined by President Kim Daejung"s visit to the North last year.
"The breakthrough in state-to-state relations so far supports the existing political and military equilibrium on the peninsula," says Byrne. Downside risks are contained, perhaps, "but the upside credit risks remain unfathomable for South Korea, which could endure substantial fiscal and economic burdens through eventual reconciliation and reunification.