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금리 변화는 없지만 경제를 바라보는 연준의 시각에는 약간의 변화가 나타났다. FOMC는 성명서에서 “경제와 고용시장 전망에 미치는 위험은 전반적으로 균형을 이루고 있다”는 문구를 삭제했다.
중국의 경기 상황 등에도 불구하고 연준은 미국의 경제상황에 대해 자신감을 보여왔다. ‘위험 균형’은 그런 자신감을 대표하는 표현이었다. 연준이 ‘위험 균형’이란 문구를 뺐다는 건 기존의 입장에서 살짝 물러섰다는 뉘앙스를 풍긴다.
FOMC는 또 “인플레이션은 단기적으로 낮게 머물 것으로 예상한다. 부분적으로 추가적인 에너지 가격 하락 때문이다”란 문구를 집어넣었다.
연준이 생각하는 인플레이션 목표치에 도달하지 못하면 기준금리를 추가적으로 올리기 어렵다. 온라인 경제전문매체인 마켓워치는 “연준이 다소 비둘기파적 성향을 보인 것”이라고 평가했다. 미국의 금리인상 스케줄이 예상보다 늦어질 수 있는 신호라고 얘기다.
하지만 ‘일시적’이라는 단서를 달았고, ‘중기적으로 (물가상승률이) 2%로 올라갈 것’이라는 전망도 바꾸지 않았다. 뉘앙스가 조금 달라졌지만 연준이 완전히 입장을 바꾼 것은 아니다.
다음은 FOMC가 공개한 성명서 전문이다.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at moderate rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft and inventory investment slowed. A range of recent labor market indicators, including strong job gains, points to some additional decline in underutilization of labor resources. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee‘s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.
Given the economic outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
